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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

A couple of new polls from Pennsylvania: Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama by 1 and Clinton by 2, whereas Susquehana shows a bigger split between the two Dems: McCain leads Obama by 4, but trails Clinton by 3.

Rasmussen also has a new Michigan poll out, with both Democrats trailing McCain by 3 points.

These polls, when combined with the new pollster weightings that we rolled out yesterday, reduce Obama’s overall win percentage from 61.7% to 59.5%. Clinton’s number is essentially unchanged, at 41.4% compared to 41.8%.

Should the Democrats be worried about Pennsylvania and Michigan? I’ll give my generic answer to this question: you’d always rather the polls tipped in your direction than the other way around. Both Democrats should have the opportunity to move those numbers upward — or downward — based on the tenor of the campaign over the next six weeks.

NOTE: The Susquehanna poll also contains some interesting splits in the Democratic primary Obama leads Clinton by 19 points in Philadelphia, and has a slight lead on the Philly suburbs, but trails her 59-10 in the Southwestern/Allegheny region. What was that James Carville quote about Pennsylvania again?

EDIT: Also a new Arkansas poll added after the buzzer (McCain +16 over Obama, but -15 versus Clinton) that affects the numbers very slightly.

And yet another new Pennsylvania poll, this one from Strategic Vision. The good news for Obama is that it shows him doing better than Clinton in that state. The bad news for him is that both Democrats are trailing McCain in November trial heats — Obama by 3 points to Clinton’s 6.

Although earlier polling data had been better in Pennsylvania, both Democrats now rate as (very slight) underdogs to McCain in that state.

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