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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

From the internals that have been released publicly on the Kentucky exit polls, it looks to me like Clinton has about 60 percent of the vote.

She’s winning 73 percent of white women, and over the course of the primary season she has polled 14 points stronger among white women than white men. So that would imply 59 percent support from white males. Most likely we’re looking at something like the following:

Group         Clinton%  % of Electorate
White Women 73% 48%
White Men 59% 40%
Nonwhites 10% 12%

DISCLAIMER: NOT HARD DATA! PURE SPECULATION ON MY PART!

That calculation would work out to 60 percent. I don’t know how much of the remaining 40 percent would go to Obama rather than Edwards/uncommitted.

And of course, exit polls are crap. But you knew that already.

Also, note that the Oregon exit poll is really just a big survey that was conducted from last Tuesday through Sunday. As such, it might not detect any late movement. This is the one exit poll that I’d actually expect to see underestimate Obama’s numbers, considering his strong finish in the state.

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