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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Mr. November - BrettMarty.com

Montana: Gallatin, where Bozeman is, has 0% reporting. That county should favor McCain. McCain appears to be narrowly holding Yellowstone, where Billings is. But Montana is ultratight and will go late.

Missouri: Obama trails by roughly 12,500 votes with 96% in. 88% is reporting in Jackson (heavy Democratic) and St. Louis County is not all in, with Obama leading it by 17 points and 93% reporting. Obama may pull this out, but it’ll be exceptionally close.

North Carolina: Obama will probably hold on here. The North Carolina Board of Elections site has Obama up 11,000 or so with 100 of 100 counties reporting. But the nets haven’t called it. This is probably the best bet of the four — the Tarheel State going blue for Barack Obama.

Indiana: The outstanding vote is in Lake, Jasper and Allen. Jasper is more pronounced McCain right now, at 59-40. But the county is very small, and 72% precincts reporting. Allen is narrowly McCain, and not anywhere close enough to flip the roughly 23,000 votes by which Obama leads. Lake, a hugely Democratic county, still has a few precincts out.

We always had a good feeling about Indiana when we saw it in our travels. This was a state where Obama had the ground game all to himself. With us predicting a slight win for McCain in the state, but no ground game taken into effect, and with a late minute canvassing push from FiveThirtyEight in Gary, Indiana looks like it’ll go Obama.

Canvassers in Gary, today:

Indiana Election Day GOTV - BrettMarty.com

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