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Another advantage of being the first to tie up your party’s nomination: John McCain is now running his first general election commercial. It’s a bit of an abstract, aloof commercial, likely designed with longer-term branding stratagems in mind.

The ad is running in New Mexico — a pretty safe choice considering that the election was decided by less than 6,000 votes there last time around.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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