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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Remember what I told you.

But if you were unable to resist temptation and wandered over to the D.R., would there be anything particularly “dramatic” about exit poll results showing Clinton 4 points ahead? For that matter, would there be anything particularly dramatic about the (almost assuredly bullshit) “internal polls” on Drudge yesterday showing Clinton 11 points ahead? Our demographic analysis projected a Clinton win of 7-8 points, with a standard error of about 6 points around that estimate. That’s not to say that there isn’t a difference between, say, a 4-point victory for Clinton and an 11-point victory. But only when we get outside that standard error range projected by the demographic model — a Clinton win by fewer than 2 points, or more than about 13 points — would I call the results truly dramatic.

p.s. I’m sticking with my initial guess: Clinton by 7-8. And in what is perhaps the most substantive finding at this point, the exit polls suggest that there hasn’t been a surge of late-deciders. About 20 percent decided in the last week, as compared to ~30 percent in Ohio and Texas.

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