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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

9:06 PM [Nate] This was not a home-run kind of speech; he was trying to leg this one out, and say a lot of different things to satisfy a lot of different constituencies. But I think it was a stand-up triple.

9:04 PM [Nate] I don’t mean this dismissively: there’s really been something for everyone in this speech. Some red-meat, some rope-a-dope centrism, some wonkery, some emotion.

8:58 PM [Nate] I don’t mean this dismissively: there’s really been something for everyone in this speech. Some red-meat, some rope-a-dope centrism, some wonkery, some emotion.

8:47 PM [Nate] Golf clap from Boehner on proposal for pay-go rules. That was literally the least anyone could possibly clap, without being accused of not actually clapping at all.

8:44 PM [Nate] I think he’s pivoted on the public option about as well as he could. At the end of the day, he’s simply making the right argument about it, which is that it’s a means to an end.

8:36 PM [Nate]: Sean Quinn writes in to say that the Republicans failing to clap for the “no one should go broke” was a big mistake that will make for good commercials. I agree.

8:30 PM [Nate]: The images of Republicans clapping alongside Democrats when Obama mentions something like pre-existing conditions is the upside to doing this from the floor of the Congress, rather than another venue like the Oval Office. Note, though, that many Republicans didn’t stand up and clap when Obama said “no one should go broke because they get sick.”

8:26 PM [Nate]: Probably smart, politically speaking, to throw both Wyden-Bennett and single payer under the bus — but of course, the whole problem on “build[ing] on what works” is that what we have doesn’t really work.

8:24 PM [Nate]: Wish Obama would have more moments in which he’s looking straight at camera, though.

8:22 PM [Nate]: Tonally, this seems pretty decent so far — better than it reads on paper.

8:14 PM [Nate]: Excepts on public option will generate much debate. Obama will mention opinion polling showing public option is popular.

8:05 PM [Nate]: The speech, interestingly, will begin by talking not about health care, but about the economy.

7:59 PM [Nate]:
BTW, the story on Drudge right now about Dems’ “whip count” on health care is, of course, total crap. That list lumps together liberal and conservative objections, people like Jared Polis who voted against the bill in committee but will vote for final passage, and basically any Democrat who raised any uncertainties about the health care bill whatsoever. Obviously, there are votes on the right — and the left — which are at risk, and passage through the House is hardly assured. But Drudge’s list is nevertheless total crap.

7:55 PM [Nate]. Excerpts indicate something more prosaic than poetic — but maybe that is what’s needed.

7:54 PM [Nate].
Some pre-speech recommended reading: Ambinder, Sides, Tomasky.

7:52 PM [Nate]. Tom and I will be doing it live, beginning in just a moment.

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