For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.

FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before.

The reason is a new poll out of Ohio, where Public Policy Polling now shows the race dead-even at 45-45. In a PPP poll conducted in July, Obama had led by 8; that poll had been largely responsible for propping up Obama’s Ohio numbers. Our simulation model operates quite literally in shades of color, rather than a simple red:blue duality. However, with this poll figured in, we now figure McCain to be a very slight favorite in Ohio.

Furthermore, with Ohio now trailing behind Obama’s numbers nationally — we regard Obama as a 1.0-point favorite in the national popular vote, but McCain an 0.6-point favorite in Ohio — McCain now rates as slightly more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote, a reversal of the trend apparent for most of the past couple of months.

If there’s a silver lining for Obama in this poll, it’s that his lost ground has come mostly from Democrats (he performed quite well among independents in this poll) — a group that he will have a chance to rally next week in Denver.

Filed under , ,

Comments Add Comment

Never miss the best of FiveThirtyEight.

Subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Newsletter
×

Sign up for our newsletters to keep up with our favorite articles, charts and regressions. We have two on offer: The first is a curated digest of the best of what’s run on FiveThirtyEight that week. The other is Ctrl + , our weekly look at the best data journalism from around the web. Enter your email below, and we’ll be in touch.




By clicking subscribe, you agree to the FanBridge Privacy Policy

Powered by WordPress.com VIP