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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

11:42 PM [Ed] There was a primary in Oregon today, though it didn’t get much attention Back East. As expected, former Gov. John Kitzhaber easily defeated former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury for the Democratic gubernatorial bid, and also as expected, his Republican opponent will be former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, who beat back a challenge from conservative activist Allen Alley.

11:29 PM [Ed] As the Arkansas votes continue to roll in, it’s increasingly obvious that Lincoln failed to do as well as she needed in her old CD. In county after county, she won with 50-55%–not enough to compensate for a generally poor performance in southern Arkansas. In early returns, she’s actually leading in Pulaski with a majority, but even a win there would be too little, too late. It will be interesting to unravel the racial voting data in the days between now and the runoff.

11:15 PM [Ed] AP’s projecting that Blanche Lincoln will be forced into a runoff with Bill Halter in Arkansas. With nearly half the precincts reporting, she’s still stuck at 44%.

11:03 PM [Ed] In the Arkansas GOP Senate primary, it’s looking good for John Boozman, who’s at 50% with most of his “base” vote in heavily Republican NW Arkansas still out. Moreover, in the smattering of returns from his CD, he’s winning overwhelmingly, with two-thirds or more in most counties.

10:52 PM [Ed] With nearly a third of precincts reporting, Lincoln’s lead continues to slip; she’s now down to 44%, with Pulaski County still out. I don’t know if this is significant, but Halter carried Cross County in the heart of Blanche’s old House district. Perhaps he’s doing as well with African-American voters–a real key to this primary–as he hoped.

10:45 PM [Ed] Burns has conceded to Critz in PA-12. This is a big hold for Democrats, folks.

10:37 PM [Ed] A scatter-shot of counties, mostly from southern Arkansas, have come in with Halter running near or ahead of Lincoln, and her lead is now down to 45-41, with Morrison still at 14%. Lincoln is narrowly leading Saline County in central Arkansas. She’s also carrying Jefferson County (Pine Bluff) with almost exactly 50%.

10:30 PM [Tom] Critz’ lead still at 10 (54/44) with a quarter of the precincts still out in PA-12.

10:24 PM [Tom] With 74% of the precincts counted, Critz is up by 10 points in PA-12. It looks good for him.

10:20 PM [Ed] AP has called the PA Senate primary for Sestak. So “anti-incumbency night” lives on for the moment.

10:16 PM [Ed] With about 11% of the precincts reporting in Arkansas(but mostly rural and small-town boxes), Blanche Lincoln is sitting at 49%. Only a handful of her “base” counties in NW Arkansas have reported; there’s also nothing in from Halter’s base in Pulaski (Little Rock). On the Republican side, John Boozman’s at 53%, with virtually none of his home CD counties reporting.

10:09 PM [Ed] Sure enough, Bullitt came in pretty strong for Conway, and AP has called the race for him.

9:59 PM [Ed]Getting back to KY, Conway’s lead is now down to under 6,000 votes. But nearly half the remaining precincts are from Bullitt County, a suburb of Louisville, where Conway should do well. So it looks good for him.

9:45 PM [Ed] The early returns in Arkansas are mostly from the southern part of the state, and as Nate noted, the striking thing is that “minor” conservative candidate DC Morrison is in double digits everywhere. With Lincoln’s base region of northwest Arkansas just beginning to report, she’s at 48%. Halter’s base in central Arkansas is still out.

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