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It’s Time For Drew Brees And The Saints To Break Up

If there’s still a good NFL team lurking in Louisiana, it’s hiding. Since a gritty win in Philadelphia in the divisional playoffs on Jan. 4, 2014, the New Orleans Saints have gone 7-12, despite playing one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. According to our Elo ratings, they’ve suffered the sharpest decline of any NFL franchise since the start of the 2014 regular season. And after an 0-2 start this year, they have just a 15 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Once upon a time, this would have been no big deal: The Saints have had a mostly miserable history, and they still rank 28th out of the 32 active NFL franchises in lifetime winning percentage. But we’d grown used to something different. Under quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints won a Super Bowl and were consistently in the championship conversation. Despite the occasional hiccup, they maintained a league average Elo rating (1500) or higher for more than six consecutive seasons, from Nov. 24, 2008, through Dec. 7, 2014.

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What happens when a franchise declines suddenly after such a sustained period of success? Can it sometimes be a false alarm? Can it replace a few parts and return to contention? Or is it doomed to years in the wilderness?

The short answer: yes, yes and yes. It depends. It depends mostly on the quarterback situation and how the franchise manages it.

I searched our all-time Elo ratings database for cases similar to the Saints’: teams that were very good for at least five consecutive seasons but then declined fairly quickly. (See the official criteria in the footnotes.1) There have been 14 of them since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, including some of the fabled dynasties of the modern NFL.

In the table below, I’ve also named the team’s incumbent quarterback — or quarterbacks, in the event of a controversy — at the time the 1500-plus Elo streak was broken.2 Finally, I’ve listed how long it took the team to recover to contender status, which I define as having an Elo of 1600 or higher.

TEAM HIGH-ELO STREAK QB AT END OF STREAK (AGE) YEARS TO RECOVER TO CONTENDER STATUS
Colts 1963-72 Domres (25), Unitas (39) 3.1
Chiefs 1965-74 Dawson (39, injured) 7.0
Cowboys 1966-86 White (34, injured) 5.0
Vikings 1968-78 Tarkenton (38) 9.0
Dolphins 1980-87 Marino (26) 3.0
49ers 1981-99 Young (38, injured) 2.1
Raiders 1982-87 Wilson (30), Hilger (25) 3.2
Broncos 1984-90 Elway (30) 1.1
Bears 1984-89 Harbaugh (26), Tomczak (27) 0.9
Rams 1999-04 Bulger (27) 10.8+
Eagles 2000-05 McNabb (29) 3.0
Colts 2002-11 Manning (35, injured) 3.1
Steelers 2004-13 Roethlisberger (31) 1.3
Saints 2008-14 Brees (35) ??

At first glance, this list doesn’t look all that bad for the Saints. The median team took 3.1 years to recover to contender status; the average team3 took 4.1 years.

But the average looks better than it otherwise would be because of a series of teams that had a stud quarterback in the prime of his career. Dan Marino’s Dolphins, John Elway’s Broncos, Donovan McNabb’s Eagles and Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers each endured a rough patch. But those QBs were between 26 and 31 when the slump began, leaving their teams with plenty of time to adjust around them.

Brees, by contrast, was 35 when the Saints’ Elo streak was broken last season. Past teams like the 1974 Chiefs, 1978 Vikings and 1986 Cowboys that held on to their aging QBs a year or so too long (sometimes through intermittent injuries) took longer to recover — and it was only once a new quarterback replaced the veteran that they did.

The 2011 Colts, with Peyton Manning, and the 1999 49ers, with Steve Young, appear to be exceptions — both franchises rebounded pretty quickly after miserable seasons. But Young and Manning were injured so severely that their teams were forced to contemplate life without them — or at least had a convenient excuse to move on. Both had already played their last games for their clubs4 at the time their Elo streaks ended, it turned out.

Brees is in the all-time inner circle of franchise quarterbacks: Only five others (Manning, Brett Favre, Marino, Elway and Tom Brady) have accumulated more passing yards with a single club. The problem is that a quarterback who’s been good for as long as Brees can obscure deterioration in the team around him. ESPN’s QBR includes a calculation of how much a quarterback is worth to his team in each game, relative to an average or replacement-level QB. This allows us to estimate how often a replacement QB would swing a game from a win to a loss, or vice versa. For instance, if the Saints win by 7 points and QBR estimates that Brees was worth 8.2 points, that’s a game where the quarterback made the difference.

SAINTS’ RECORD WITH …
YEAR DREW BREES AVERAGE QB (PROJECTED) REPLACEMENT QB (PROJECTED)
2006 10-6 10-6 8-8
2007 7-9 7-9 6-10
2008 8-8 8-8 7-9
2009 13-3 11-5 10-6
2010 11-5 8-8 6-10
2011 13-3 10-6 9-7
2012 7-9 5-11 3-13
2013 11-5 11-5 6-10
2014 7-9 5-11 4-12
2015 0-2 0-2 0-2
Total 87-59 75-71 59-87

Basically, we’re looking for cases in which a quarterback plays really well in a close win.5 Brees has had a lot of those clutch wins.6 Since 2006, his first year with the Saints, the team is 87-59 in the regular season.

But with a replacement-level QB, they’d be 59-87 instead, according to this method. And the last few years would have been especially awful: The Saints would have gone 3-13 in 2012, 6-10 in 2013 and 4-12 in 2014 with Mark Sanchez or Brandon Weeden or some other replacement-level QB at the helm.

Or … maybe not, since the Saints would have had a lot more money to invest elsewhere in the roster. Brees’s contract counts for $26.4 million against the salary cap this year, making it the biggest cap hit in the league. Because the top NFL quarterbacks are probably underpaid relative to the disproportionate value they can provide to their clubs, that’s not even all that terrible a contract so long as Brees is among the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the league — as he was until this season. But the minute Brees gets hurt, or reverts to league average (or worse) because of age, the Saints are left with a rotting carcass of a roster and a salary cap crisis.

In fact, for all their irrationality in other areas, NFL teams have usually been able to anticipate these problems and have been remarkably unsentimental in parting ways with aging franchise quarterbacks in the salary-cap era. The first signs were in 1993, when Joe Montana was traded.7 Then came Phil Simms — who, after a somewhat miraculous comeback season in 1993, was unceremoniously released the next spring. Troy Aikman might have retired anyway because of injuries, but he was ushered out the door. The same goes for Young, who was not welcome back in San Francisco. Warren Moon was passed around like a joint at a Phish concert toward the end of his career. Kurt Warner was benched. McNabb endured a fate worse than being benched: He was dealt to Washington. Favre had a reality-TV-style mess of a divorce from the Packers. Manning was let go once the Colts knew they had an opportunity to draft Andrew Luck.

These NFL teams have generally recognized that it’s better to break up with an aging quarterback a year too early than a year too late. And almost none of those decisions look bad in retrospect.8 Brees may still have something left — quite possibly enough to lead another franchise somewhere to a deep playoff run — but it’s probably time for he and the Saints to move on from each other.

Check out our NFL predictions for odds on every Week 3 game.

Footnotes

  1. Specifically, I looked for cases since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 in which a team:

    • Had a streak of five or more years in which its Elo rating was always league average (1500) or higher,
    • Had an average Elo rating of 1600 or higher during the streak, and
    • Declined to an Elo rating of 1450 or lower within a year of the streak breaking.

    ^

  2. If the incumbent was knocked out because of an injury, I still list his name rather than his understudy’s. ^
  3. The St. Louis Rams have yet to achieve a 1600-plus Elo rating since the Kurt Warner years ended. For purposes of calculating this average, I’m using their current time of 10.8 years since their high-Elo streak was broken — but the Rams could take longer still to recover. ^
  4. And Young, forced into retirement, had played his last in the NFL. ^
  5. Or plays poorly in a close loss. ^
  6. The Saints don’t have an especially good record in close games under Brees, but he’s played extremely well in close games, win or lose, according to QBR. He’s salvaged a lot of wins from the jaws of defeat and kept the Saints competitive in games in which they’d otherwise have been blown out. ^
  7. The salary cap would not officially be implemented until 1994, but NFL teams were aware of its impending impact at the time of Montana’s trade in April 1993. ^
  8. The Colts releasing Manning without much of a fight might be the closest call, given Manning’s record-setting years in Denver, but they can’t exactly be unhappy with Luck. ^

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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