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Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry — which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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