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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

This is actually somewhat helpful:

About seven in 10 in both states called Obama honest and trustworthy. Nearly as many said that about Clinton in South Dakota but barely half in Montana called her honest and trustworthy.

The exit polls have been asking this question since Mississippi. Here’s what those numbers looked like in the other states:

State      Clinton  Obama   Honesty Gap   Margin
MS 49 70 O +21 O +24
PA 58 67 O +9 C +9
IN 54 67 O +13 C +1
NC 49 71 O +22 O +15
WV 64 43 C +21 C +41
KY 64 47 C +17 C +36
OR 51 77 O +26 O +18

SD 68 70 O +2 ???
MT 52 70 O +18 ???

If we regress the final margin on the “honesty gap” — the difference in the number of voters who think each candidate is honest and trustworthy — we come up with a nearly linear relationship. That is, this question is a pretty reasonable predictor of the final margin.

In this case, I have it predicting a 12-point win for Clinton in South Dakota and a 10-point win for Obama in Montana. However, the South Dakota result is a bit unusual in that it’s the first state where substantial majorities think both candidates are honest and trustworthy. South Dakotans like both their Dems; if they wind up picking Clinton tonight, it should not really be read as some kind of indictment of Obama.

We can perform the same calculation on the “satisfied if ____ wins the nomination” question, which the exit polls have been tracking for a little longer:

Satisfied if [Clinton/Obama] wins nomination?

State Clinton Obama Satisfied Gap Margin
OH 73 66 C +7 C +8
TX 70 66 C +4 C +4
VT 70 82 O +12 O +21
RI 75 63 C +12 C +18
MS 58 69 O +11 O +24
PA 73 64 C +9 C +9
IN 67 66 C +1 O +1
NC 63 69 O +6 O +15
WV 74 42 C +32 C +41
KY 76 43 C +34 C +36
OR 70 79 O +9 O +18
SD 75 70 C +5 ???

Performing the same regression analysis on this data works out to a Clinton lead of 3 points in South Dakota.

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