# FiveThirtyEight

## Politics

About seven in 10 in both states called Obama honest and trustworthy. Nearly as many said that about Clinton in South Dakota but barely half in Montana called her honest and trustworthy.

The exit polls have been asking this question since Mississippi. Here’s what those numbers looked like in the other states:

State      Clinton  Obama   Honesty Gap   MarginMS         49       70      O +21         O +24     PA         58       67      O +9          C +9IN         54       67      O +13         C +1NC         49       71      O +22         O +15WV         64       43      C +21         C +41KY         64       47      C +17         C +36OR         51       77      O +26         O +18SD         68       70      O +2          ???MT         52       70      O +18         ???

If we regress the final margin on the “honesty gap” — the difference in the number of voters who think each candidate is honest and trustworthy — we come up with a nearly linear relationship. That is, this question is a pretty reasonable predictor of the final margin.

In this case, I have it predicting a 12-point win for Clinton in South Dakota and a 10-point win for Obama in Montana. However, the South Dakota result is a bit unusual in that it’s the first state where substantial majorities think both candidates are honest and trustworthy. South Dakotans like both their Dems; if they wind up picking Clinton tonight, it should not really be read as some kind of indictment of Obama.

We can perform the same calculation on the “satisfied if ____ wins the nomination” question, which the exit polls have been tracking for a little longer:

Satisfied if [Clinton/Obama] wins nomination?State      Clinton  Obama   Satisfied Gap MarginOH         73       66      C +7          C +8TX         70       66      C +4          C +4VT         70       82      O +12         O +21RI         75       63      C +12         C +18MS         58       69      O +11         O +24PA         73       64      C +9          C +9IN         67       66      C +1          O +1NC         63       69      O +6          O +15WV         74       42      C +32         C +41KY         76       43      C +34         C +36OR         70       79      O +9          O +18SD         75       70      C +5          ???

Performing the same regression analysis on this data works out to a Clinton lead of 3 points in South Dakota.

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