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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

* But were afraid to ask.

And … here’s what you can learn from that chart:

1. If Florida and Michigan are not seated (Scenario A), Obama will clinch an outright majority of pledged delegates on May 20th (Oregon/Kentucky), barring an act of God.

2. If Florida is fully seated, Obama will probably not clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which plan is accepted in Michigan.

3. However, even if Florida is fully seated, Obama is somewhat likely to clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is more likely than not to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Michigan compromise plan is accepted (Scenario C). He is about 50:50 to clinch a plurality if Florida is fully seated and the Clinton position is accepted (Scenario D).

4. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama will almost certainly clinch a plurality of pledged delegates on May 20th, regardless of which Michigan plan is accepted.

5. If half the Florida delegation is seated, Obama may also clinch a majority of pledged delegates on May 20th. He is about 50:50 to do so if the compromise position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario F). He has an outside position of doing so if the Clinton position is accepted in Michigan (Scenario G).

6. Any pledged delegate scenarios that Obama does not clinch on May 20th, he will very probably clinch on June 1 (Puerto Rico)

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