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A comparison in seven counties where all votes have been counted.

County_______ Deeds Obama
King & Queen_ 41.0 51.8
Prince Edward 44.9 54.3
Westmoreland_ 41.4 54.6
Wythe________ 27.3 32.9
Lexington____ 60.5 62.2
Williamsburg_ 54.6 63.8
Winchester___ 39.2 52.0
AVERAGE______ 44.1 53.1

These counties are actually fairly representative — Obama won 52.6 percent of the vote in Virginia overall — so it looks like Deeds is going down to defeat on the order of 56-44. This is why some of the networks are starting to call the race.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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