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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

For the record, she got 2 points in Rasmussen, and 10 points in Gallup, or 6 points on average, by the standards I set up last week to evaluate this stuff. The bounce has since receded slightly to a 4.5-point average.

But what’s interesting about numbers in that 4-6 point range is that this is about what she’d need to have an even-steven chance of winning the +Florida popular vote count — which likely won’t win her an argument in Denver but might get her through the doors.

It’s harder to tell what’s going on at the state level. In Indiana, Clinton either gained or lost points from the previous SurveyUSA poll, depending on what you consider a SurveyUSA poll and what you don’t. PPP showed some significant movement to her in North Carolina, but PPP also probably had some work to do on its model after its poor performance in Pennsylvania.

Obama would benefit from a change in the media cycle — that much I’m pretty certain about.

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