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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Marc Ambinder raises a simple but important point about the Democratic veepstakes:

Item: the Democratic National Convention Committee confirms that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been given a Tuesday night speaking slot. Evidence that she won’t be chosen as vice president?

Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama’s VP team are entirely separate and segregated.

It’s been a lot of fun, but we’ve probably been guilty of overinterpretation. Having been a partner in a small business, I can attest to the fact that rumors are contagious, and that the risk of leaks is an exponential function of the number of people let in on the secret.

The fact is that if the convention planners and schedulers in Denver know the identity of Obama’s Vice Presidential selection, that means a lot of people know. And if a lot of people know, that means the media would know.

But the media doesn’t know.

Ergo, not very many people do know. Perhaps only some combination of Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs, and the candidate him or herself, if the candidate has been chosen at all.

Ergo, we know nothing.

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