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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

…is from Scott Rasmussen, whom I doubt has ever read fivethrityeight.com, but certainly keeps us busy.

The poll is from Oregon, and shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 6 points, but Hillary Clinton trailing McCain by the same margin.

Clinton has polled consistently behind Obama in the Pacific Northwest region. In fact, if you look at the West in general — draw a line from North Dakota down to Texas and take everything West from there — Obama is ahead in our polling averages in every single state except Oklahoma.

This, ultimately, is the upshot from the PPIC poll that shows McCain competitive with Hillary in California. Clinton is unlikely to lose California — but it provides some confirmatory evidence that states like Oregon and Washington might be tough for her, and that her breed of liberalism is a mediocre fit for the Pacific Northwest culture.

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