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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

No, things aren’t looking quite that bleak for John McCain just yet.

But those are roughly your chances of actually deciding the outcome of the election with your vote — if you’re fortunate enough to live in New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia or Colorado (If you live in Utah or the District of Columbia, God help you.)

This according to friend-of-538 (and Columbia University professor / Red State, Blue State… author) Andrew Gelman, who adopted a recent set of our simulation runs to come to this conclusion.

Andrew disclaims — as would I — that it can be quite rational to vote even given these intimidatingly long odds.

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