For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.

Although we’re loyal to the Soccer Power Index (SPI), the system  we use to produce FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup projections, we’re also big fans of the World Football Elo Ratings.

Unfortunately, the Elo ratings website has not been updated since the World Cup began. So we followed their instructions for calculating their ratings and ran the numbers ourselves:

paine-silver-elo-table

Brazil, as before, ranks as the world’s best team per Elo. But the Netherlands has made huge gains and now ranks No. 2, just ahead of Germany. Spain’s rating has fallen the most, 116 points, taking the team from second to sixth.

Elo and SPI are highly correlated and they’ve fared well against other methods of predicting World Cup results so far, including betting lines.

Comments Add Comment

Filed under , , , ,

Never miss the best of FiveThirtyEight.

Subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Newsletter
×

Sign up for our newsletters to keep up with our favorite articles, charts and regressions. We have three on offer: a curated digest of the best of FiveThirtyEight from the past week; Ctrl + ←, our weekly look at the best data journalism from around the web; and Significant Digits, our roundup of numbers in the news. Enter your email below, and we’ll be in touch.





By clicking subscribe, you agree to the FanBridge Privacy Policy

Powered by WordPress.com VIP