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FiveThirtyEight

Joni Ernst, a Republican Senate candidate in Iowa, campaigns with Sen. Chuck Grassley at the 2014 Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 8.
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Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, left, and Republican candidate for Senate Thom Tillis following a debate at UNC-TV studios in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, on Wednesday.
Independent candidate Greg Orman during a debate with Republican Sen. Pat Roberts at the Kansas State Fair on Saturday in Hutchinson.
Passengers on a plane on June 23, 2013.
Excerpt from "What If?" by Randall Munroe to be published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt on Sept. 2, 2014. Copyright 2014 by xkcd Inc. Used by permission of the author. All rights reserved.
Dick Van Dyke as Bert, Julie Andrews as Mary Poppins, Karen Dotrice as Jane Banks and Matthew Garber as Michael Banks in the 1964 Disney film "Mary Poppins."
The "Specs and the City" episode of "The Simpsons."
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