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FiveThirtyEight

Rory McIlroy plays a shot off the 14th tee during the final round of the British Open on Sunday in Hoylake, England.
Koji Uehara of the Boston Red Sox in the sixth inning of the 85th All-Star Game at Target Field in Minneapolis.
Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia before a game between the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies last week.
Adam Wainwright, right, waits as Derek Jeter comes to bat for the first time during Tuesday's All-Star Game at Target Field in Minneapolis.
American League shortstop Derek Jeter of the New York Yankees walks off the field Monday after batting practice for the MLB All-Star Game.
Argentina's Lionel Messi
Germany's Mario Goetze after scoring the game winning goal in the World Cup final between Germany and Argentina.
German players during the World Cup semifinal match between Brazil and Germany at Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
A Brazilian fan looks dejected after Brazil lost 7-1 to Germany on Tuesday in the semifinal match of the 2014 World Cup in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Brazil's Daniel Alves during a practice session on Monday at the Granja Comary training center in Teresopolis, Brazil.
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