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FiveThirtyEight

Mitt Romney speaks at the Hotel Fort Des Moines on the night of the Iowa Caucuses on Jan. 3, 2012. Low turnout at events such as the Iowa caucuses makes pollsters' work difficult.
Police officers charge into a group of demonstrators to make an arrest Tuesday in Ferguson, Missouri.
Four boats at Rock Island in Koror, Palau.
The Netherlands' Robin van Persie heads the ball to score during the June 13 group B World Cup match between Spain and the Netherlands at the Arena Ponte Nova in Salvador, Brazil.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at an event in Oakland, California, Wednesday, July 23, 2014.
Former Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love.
Sen. Pat Roberts takes the stage to make his victory speech Tuesday in Overland Park, Kansas.
Paul George warms up before a USA Basketball showcase game in which he suffered an injury, on Aug. 1, 2014, in Las Vegas.
U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue in Glennville, Georgia, on April 17. FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Perdue's chances of winning have improved since then.
Indiana Pacers' Paul George is taken off the court after he was injured during the USA Basketball Showcase game on Friday in Las Vegas.
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