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FiveThirtyEight

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Massachusetts, state Attorney General Martha Coakley, waves to supporters at the party's unity breakfast Sept. 10 in Boston.
U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, an Alaska Democrat.
Attorney General Eric Holder during an interview with the Associated Press at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 16.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in her Supreme Court chambers in Washington in July.
U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn tours the Second Harvest food bank in Valdosta, Georgia in April.
Dan Sullivan, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Alaska, in Roll Call's Washington office.
Midtown Manhattan on Sunday during the People's Climate March, a worldwide mobilization calling on world leaders meeting at the United Nations to commit to urgent action on climate change.
Sen. Al Franken, Democrat of Minnesota, during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington in 2013.
Supporters of the "no" campaign for the Scottish independence referendum celebrate after the result was announced at a hotel in Glasgow, Scotland.
Rep. Cory Gardner, who's running for Senate, delivers a speech at the state GOP Congress, in Boulder, Colorado, in April.
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