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FiveThirtyEight

David Goffin returns the ball to his opponent, Joao Sousa, during a tennis match on Sept 21, 2014, in France.
A health worker sprays disinfectant around the area where a suspected Ebola patient sits before loading him into an ambulance in Freetown, Sierra Leone, on Wednesday.
Li Na of China returns a shot against Daniela Hantuchova of Slovakia on Day 1 of the 2012 Olympic Games at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in Wimbledon, in London.
"No" campaigners celebrate as results come in for the Scottish independence referendum at the Royal Highland Centre in Edinburgh, Scotland.
Supporters of the "no" campaign for the Scottish independence referendum celebrate after the result was announced at a hotel in Glasgow, Scotland.
This image was made from video posted by Iraqi0Revolution, a group supporting Islamic State, in June and showing a militant standing in front of a burning Iraqi Army Humvee in Tikrit, Iraq.
Members of the Yes campaign left messages in chalk on pavement and buildings Wednesday in Edinburgh, Scotland.
Duncan Thomson, Brian McCutcheon, John Patterson and Arthur Murdoch, all of the King of Scots Robert the Bruce Society, hold Scottish flags Saturday near Loch Lomond.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrives at Cairo International Airport on Saturday. Kerry arrived in Cairo for a short visit to discuss how Egypt can help in the fight against the Islamic State group.
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